Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 14
Wisla KrakowvCracovia Krakow
Wisla Krakow
Cracovia Krakow·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Wisla Krakow and Cracovia Krakow finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Wis / Cra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Wisla Krakow down the side and Cracovia Krakow across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Wisla Krakow39% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Wisla Krakow the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Wisla Krakow
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Cracovia Krakow
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Wisla KrakowLWDLW
- Yesterday · A v Lech Poznan 1–3
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Raków Częstochowa 2–1
- Fri 16 Oct · A v Widzew Łódź 0–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Legia Warszawa 0–2
- Fri 18 Sep · H v Slask Wroclaw 2–1
Cracovia KrakowLLDWL
- Fri 30 Oct · H v Motor Lublin 1–2(xG 1.4–2.0)
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Piast Gliwice 1–3
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Legia Warszawa 1–1
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Zaglebie Lubin 3–1
- Sat 19 Sep · A v GKS Katowice 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Wisla Krakow have won 2 of their last 5.
- Wisla Krakow have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Wisla Krakow's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wisla Krakow's last 5.
- Wisla Krakow kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 1 of their last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Cracovia Krakow's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Cracovia Krakow's last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Wisla Krakow
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Cracovia Krakow
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model makes Wisla Krakow the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.