Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 9
Wisla KrakowvSlask Wroclaw
Wisla Krakow
Slask Wroclaw·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Wisla Krakow and Slask Wroclaw finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Wis / Sla | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Wisla Krakow down the side and Slask Wroclaw across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 37%.
What we think
- Wisla Krakow40% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Wisla Krakow the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 59% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Wisla Krakow a 60% chance. Our model makes it 40%.
2Market
Open: 58% home · 23% draw · 20% away
Now: 60% home · 23% draw · 18% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Wisla Krakow
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Wisla Krakow
Confirmed · 4-5-1
No reported absences.
Slask Wroclaw
Confirmed · 5-3-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Wisla KrakowWDWDL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Jagiellonia 2–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Korona Kielce 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Wieczysta Kraków 2–0
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Pogon Szczecin 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Gornik Zabrze 1–2
Slask WroclawLLDDL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Korona Kielce 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Jagiellonia 1–2(xG 1.9–1.4)
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Legia Warszawa 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Widzew Łódź 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Zaglebie Lubin 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Wisla Krakow have won 2 of their last 5.
- Wisla Krakow have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Wisla Krakow's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Wisla Krakow's last 5.
- Wisla Krakow kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Slask Wroclaw have won 0 of their last 5.
- Slask Wroclaw have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Slask Wroclaw's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Slask Wroclaw's last 5.
- Slask Wroclaw kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Wisla Krakow
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Slask Wroclaw
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Kraków · Referee: Lukasz Kuzma, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
- Our model makes Wisla Krakow the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Wisla Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
- Wisla Krakow line up in a 4-5-1, Slask Wroclaw in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.