Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 8
Wisla PlockvCracovia Krakow
Wisla Plock
Cracovia Krakow·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Wisla Plock and Cracovia Krakow finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Wis / Cra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Wisla Plock down the side and Cracovia Krakow across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 26% against 28%.
What we think
- Wisla Plock39% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Wisla Plock the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Cracovia Krakow the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, which is what the market has it at too (49%).
For comparison, the market gives Cracovia Krakow a 36% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 28% draw · 34% away
Now: 36% home · 28% draw · 36% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Wisla Plock
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Wisla Plock
Confirmed · 3-5-2
No reported absences.
Cracovia Krakow
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Wisla PlockDLLLD
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Pogon Szczecin 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Korona Kielce 0–2
- Sun 23 Aug · A v GKS Katowice 0–5
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Wisla Krakow 1–2
- Fri 31 Jul · H v Widzew Łódź 0–0
Cracovia KrakowLLWWD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Gornik Zabrze 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Radomiak Radom 1–2
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Wieczysta Kraków 3–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Raków Częstochowa 2–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Slask Wroclaw 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Wisla Plock have won 0 of their last 5.
- Wisla Plock have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Wisla Plock's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Wisla Plock's last 5.
- Wisla Plock kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow have won 2 of their last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Cracovia Krakow's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cracovia Krakow's last 5.
- Cracovia Krakow kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Wisla Plock
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Cracovia Krakow
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadion im. Kazimierza Gorskiego, Plock · Referee: Paweł Raczkowski, Poland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model makes Wisla Plock the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Cracovia Krakow at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
- Wisla Plock line up in a 3-5-2, Cracovia Krakow in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.