Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

MoreirensevGIL Vicente

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1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives GIL Vicente a 43% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

GIL VicenteModel pendingMarket 43%
GIL Vicente:, no forecast published, market 43%

2Market

Open: 28% home · 29% draw · 43% away

Now: 28% home · 29% draw · 43% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs28%
Draw—vs29%
Away—vs43%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs42%
Under 2.5—vs58%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs69%
Under 1.5—vs31%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs21%
Under 3.5—vs79%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs49%
No—vs51%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Moreirense

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

GIL Vicente

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

MoreirenseDWLLW

  • Sun 20 Sep · A v Vitória SC 1–1
  • Mon 14 Sep · H v Maritimo 3–1
  • Wed 9 Sep · H v Benfica 0–4
  • Fri 4 Sep · A v FC Porto 1–2
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Casa Pia 1–0(xG 0.3–0.8)

GIL VicenteDLLDW

  • Sat 19 Sep · H v Maritimo 1–1
  • Sun 13 Sep · A v Benfica 1–3
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Academico Viseu 0–1
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Famalicao 0–0(xG 0.3–0.2)
  • Mon 24 Aug · H v Casa Pia 2–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Moreirense
  • Moreirense have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Moreirense have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Moreirense's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Moreirense's last 5.
  • Moreirense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
GIL Vicente
  • GIL Vicente have won 1 of their last 5.
  • GIL Vicente have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 1 of GIL Vicente's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of GIL Vicente's last 5.
  • GIL Vicente kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Moreirense

Rest: 19 days · 0 matches in 14d

GIL Vicente

Rest: 20 days · 0 matches in 14d

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos

8Red flags