Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 11
NacionalvAcademico Viseu
Nacional
Academico Viseu·
0 – 0 (54')
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Nacional and Academico Viseu finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Nac / Aca | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nacional down the side and Academico Viseu across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 45%.
What we think
- Nacional36% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Nacional the most likely of the three results, at 36%. Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Academico Viseu the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 1 Nov, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 45% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Academico Viseu a 40% chance. Before kick-off our model made it 35%;with the current score at 54′ it is 26%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 29% draw · 40% away
Now: 31% home · 29% draw · 40% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nacional
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Academico Viseu
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NacionalLWLLL
- Sun 1 Nov · A v Arouca 0–1(xG 0.3–0.7)
- Sun 25 Oct · H v SC Braga 1–0(xG 0.5–1.7)
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Rio Ave 2–3
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Famalicao 0–4
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Alverca 1–3
Academico ViseuWWWWW
- Sun 1 Nov · H v Rio Ave 2–1(xG 0.9–1.1)
- Sun 25 Oct · A v Sporting CP 2–1(xG 0.8–2.0)
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Estoril 2–1
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Estrela 2–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Vitória SC 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nacional have won 1 of their last 5.
- Nacional have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Nacional's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Nacional's last 5.
- Nacional kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Academico Viseu have won 5 of their last 5.
- Academico Viseu have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Academico Viseu's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Academico Viseu's last 5.
- Academico Viseu kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Nacional
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Academico Viseu
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal · Referee: Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
- Our model makes Nacional the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market instead favours Academico Viseu at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
- Nacional line up in a 4-3-3, Academico Viseu in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.