Pro League · Regular Season - 13
AbhavAl Shabab
Abha
Al Shabab·
1Headline
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 58% against 57%.
What we think
- Al Shabab57% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Al Shabab the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, which is what the market has it at too (57%).
For comparison, the market gives Al Shabab a 52% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 24% home · 25% draw · 52% away
Now: 24% home · 25% draw · 52% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Abha
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Al Shabab
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AbhaDLLLD
- Fri 30 Oct · H v Al-Ittihad FC 1–1(xG 0.8–1.4)
- Tue 27 Oct · H v Al-Faisaly FC 0–1(xG 1.5–1.0)
- Sat 24 Oct · A v NEOM 0–2
- Fri 16 Oct · A v Al-Qadisiyah FC 1–2
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Al Diriyah 0–0
Al ShababWWDWD
- Fri 30 Oct · H v Al-Ahli Jeddah 6–1(xG 4.3–1.0)
- Thu 22 Oct · A v Al-Fateh 3–1
- Mon 19 Oct · H v Al-Faisaly FC 2–2
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Al Taawon 3–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Al-Fayha 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Abha have won 0 of their last 5.
- Abha have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Abha's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Abha's last 5.
- Abha kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Al Shabab have won 3 of their last 5.
- Al Shabab have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Al Shabab's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Al Shabab's last 5.
- Al Shabab kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Abha
Rest: 27 days · 0 matches in 14d
Al Shabab
Rest: 27 days · 0 matches in 14d
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Khamis Mushait
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Abha vs Al Shabab?
- Our model makes Al Shabab the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in Abha vs Al Shabab?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.