Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al-Ahli JeddahvAl Taawon
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Taawon·
0 – 0
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Al- / Al | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Al-Ahli Jeddah down the side and Al Taawon across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Al-Ahli Jeddah62% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Al Taawon
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Al-Ahli JeddahLWWWW
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Al Shabab 1–6(xG 1.0–4.3)
- Fri 23 Oct · H v Al Khaleej Saihat 4–1
- Mon 19 Oct · A v Al-Fayha 3–2
- Fri 9 Oct · A v Al-Fateh 4–0
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Al-Hazm 3–1
Al TaawonDLLDL
- Sat 31 Oct · H v Al-Ettifaq 1–1(xG 1.4–1.7)
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Al Riyadh 1–2
- Tue 20 Oct · H v Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–1
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Al Diriyah 1–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Al Shabab 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of their last 5.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 5.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Al Taawon have won 0 of their last 5.
- Al Taawon have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Al Taawon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Al Taawon's last 5.
- Al Taawon kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Al Taawon
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
- Our model makes Al-Ahli Jeddah the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.