Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al-FatehvAl Riyadh
Al-Fateh
Al Riyadh·
0 – 0
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Al- / Al | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Al-Fateh down the side and Al Riyadh across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Al-Fateh51% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Al-Fateh the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Al-Fateh
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Al Riyadh
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Al-FatehLLLWL
- Sat 31 Oct · A v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0–2(xG 0.3–3.7)
- Thu 22 Oct · H v Al Shabab 1–3
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Al Khaleej Saihat 2–3
- Thu 15 Oct · A v Al-Hazm 3–2
- Fri 9 Oct · H v Al-Ahli Jeddah 0–4
Al RiyadhLWLDW
- Thu 29 Oct · H v Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–6(xG 1.4–5.3)
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Al Taawon 2–1
- Tue 20 Oct · A v Al Diriyah 0–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Al-Fayha 1–1
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Al Kholood 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Al-Fateh have won 1 of their last 5.
- Al-Fateh have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Al-Fateh's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Al-Fateh's last 5.
- Al-Fateh kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Al Riyadh have won 2 of their last 5.
- Al Riyadh have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Al Riyadh's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Al Riyadh's last 5.
- Al Riyadh kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Al-Fateh
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Al Riyadh
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Al Fateh club stadium, Al-Hofuf
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
- Our model makes Al-Fateh the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.