Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al-HazmvAl-Nassr
Al-Hazm
Al-Nassr·
0 – 0
1Headline
We expect
1–20.8–2.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–2 (11%), then 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Al-Hazm and Al-Nassr finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Al- / Al- | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Al-Hazm down the side and Al-Nassr across. These 94.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 5.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 41% against 49%.
What we think
- Al-Nassr76% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Al-Nassr the most likely of the three results, at 76% (we would not be surprised by anything from 67% to 84%). Most likely is not likely: at 76% this result does not happen 24% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 81%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, against the market’s 70% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Al-Nassr a 81% chance. Our model makes it 76%.
2Market
Open: 7% home · 12% draw · 81% away
Now: 7% home · 12% draw · 81% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Al-Hazm
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Al-Nassr
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Al-HazmLDLLD
- Thu 29 Oct · A v Al Khaleej Saihat 2–4(xG 0.9–3.3)
- Thu 22 Oct · H v Al-Fayha 2–2
- Mon 19 Oct · A v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0–1
- Thu 15 Oct · H v Al-Fateh 2–3
- Sat 10 Oct · H v NEOM 1–1
Al-NassrWWWWD
- Thu 29 Oct · H v Al Kholood 5–3(xG 3.8–2.0)
- Fri 23 Oct · A v Al-Faisaly FC 3–1
- Tue 20 Oct · H v NEOM 1–0
- Fri 9 Oct · H v Al Diriyah 3–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Al Khaleej Saihat 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Al-Hazm have won 0 of their last 5.
- Al-Hazm have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Al-Hazm's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Al-Hazm's last 5.
- Al-Hazm kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Al-Nassr have won 4 of their last 5.
- Al-Nassr have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Al-Nassr's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Al-Nassr's last 5.
- Al-Nassr kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Al-Hazm
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Al-Nassr
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Al Hazm Club Stadium, Ar Rass
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr?
- Our model makes Al-Nassr the most likely result at 76%. Most likely is not likely — at 76% it does not happen 24% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 81%.
- How many goals are expected in Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Nassr?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.