Pro League · Regular Season - 11

Al-Ittihad FCvAl Diriyah

·

2 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Al-Ittihad FC a 49% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Al-Ittihad FCModel pendingMarket 49%
Al-Ittihad FC:, no forecast published, market 49%

Matches we've forecast today

Here are some matches from today's board that have our model forecasts:

View all today's forecasts →

2Market

Open: 48% home · 23% draw · 28% away

Now: 49% home · 23% draw · 27% away

Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Al Diriyah

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs49%
Draw—vs23%
Away—vs27%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs61%
Under 2.5—vs39%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs84%
Under 1.5—vs16%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs39%
Under 3.5—vs61%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs63%
No—vs37%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Al-Ittihad FC

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Al Diriyah

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Al-Ittihad FCWLWWW

  • Tue 20 Oct · A v Al-Ettifaq 4–1
  • Sat 10 Oct · A v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–3
  • Fri 11 Sep · A v Al-Faisaly FC 3–1
  • Tue 8 Sep · H v Al-Fayha 2–1(xG 2.4–0.6)
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Al-Nassr 2–1

Al DiriyahWDLDW

  • Tue 20 Oct · H v Al Riyadh 1–0
  • Sat 17 Oct · H v Al Taawon 1–1
  • Fri 9 Oct · A v Al-Nassr 0–3
  • Sun 13 Sep · H v Abha 0–0
  • Wed 9 Sep · A v Al-Fateh 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Al-Ittihad FC
  • Al-Ittihad FC have won 4 of their last 5.
  • Al-Ittihad FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 5 of Al-Ittihad FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Al-Ittihad FC's last 5.
  • Al-Ittihad FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Al Diriyah
  • Al Diriyah have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Al Diriyah have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Al Diriyah's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Al Diriyah's last 5.
  • Al Diriyah kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Al-Ittihad FC

Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d

Al Diriyah

Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d

King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah · Referee: Majed Mohammed Al-Shamrani, Saudi Arabia

8Red flags