Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al-Ittihad FCvNEOM
Al-Ittihad FC
NEOM·
0 – 0
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Al-Ittihad FC and NEOM finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Al- / NEO | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Al-Ittihad FC down the side and NEOM across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 35%.
What we think
- Al-Ittihad FC52% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Al-Ittihad FC the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 58% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Al-Ittihad FC a 49% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Now: 49% home · 24% draw · 26% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Al-Ittihad FC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
NEOM
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Al-Ittihad FCDWWLW
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Abha 1–1(xG 1.4–0.8)
- Fri 23 Oct · H v Al Diriyah 2–0
- Tue 20 Oct · A v Al-Ettifaq 4–1
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–3
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Al-Faisaly FC 3–1
NEOMWWLLD
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Al Diriyah 2–1(xG 1.8–1.3)
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Abha 2–0
- Tue 20 Oct · A v Al-Nassr 0–1
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Al-Ettifaq 0–1
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Al-Hazm 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Al-Ittihad FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Al-Ittihad FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Al-Ittihad FC's last 5.
- Al-Ittihad FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- NEOM have won 2 of their last 5.
- NEOM have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of NEOM's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of NEOM's last 5.
- NEOM kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Al-Ittihad FC
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
NEOM
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM?
- Our model makes Al-Ittihad FC the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
- How many goals are expected in Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs NEOM?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.