Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al KholoodvAl Khaleej Saihat
Al Kholood
Al Khaleej Saihat·
1Headline
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 54% against 50%.
What we think
- Al Kholood43% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Al Kholood the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 50% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Al Kholood a 40% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away
Now: 40% home · 29% draw · 31% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Al Kholood
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Al Khaleej Saihat
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Al KholoodLLLLL
- Thu 29 Oct · A v Al-Nassr 3–5(xG 2.0–3.8)
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Al-Ettifaq 0–3
- Thu 15 Oct · A v Al-Faisaly FC 2–3
- Fri 9 Oct · H v Al-Qadisiyah FC 0–5
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Al Riyadh 0–2
Al Khaleej SaihatWLWWD
- Thu 29 Oct · H v Al-Hazm 4–2(xG 3.3–0.9)
- Fri 23 Oct · A v Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–4
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Al-Fateh 3–2
- Thu 15 Oct · H v Al-Fayha 2–0
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Al-Ettifaq 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Al Kholood have won 0 of their last 5.
- Al Kholood have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 4 of Al Kholood's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Al Kholood's last 5.
- Al Kholood kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3 of their last 5.
- Al Khaleej Saihat have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Al Khaleej Saihat's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Al Khaleej Saihat's last 5.
- Al Khaleej Saihat kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Al Kholood
Rest: 29 days · 0 matches in 14d
Al Khaleej Saihat
Rest: 29 days · 0 matches in 14d
Al Hazm Club Stadium, Ar Rass
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
- Our model makes Al Kholood the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- How many goals are expected in Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.