Pro League · Regular Season - 13
Al-Qadisiyah FCvAl-Fayha
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Fayha·
1Headline
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 34% against 55%.
What we think
- Al-Qadisiyah FC72% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 66% against a market price of 45% — 21 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 85% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.8 goals, and 4.6 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Our forecast makes Al-Qadisiyah FC the most likely of the three results, at 72% (we would not be surprised by anything from 62% to 81%). Most likely is not likely: at 72% this result does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 75%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, against the market’s 74% — a 17 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 75% chance. Our model makes it 72%.
2Market
Open: 75% home · 17% draw · 9% away
Now: 75% home · 17% draw · 9% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Al-Fayha
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Al-Qadisiyah FCWLWWW
- Thu 29 Oct · A v Al Riyadh 6–0(xG 5.3–1.4)
- Fri 23 Oct · H v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2–3
- Tue 20 Oct · A v Al Taawon 1–0
- Fri 16 Oct · H v Abha 2–1
- Fri 9 Oct · A v Al Kholood 5–0
Al-FayhaWDLLD
- Sat 31 Oct · H v Al-Faisaly FC 4–1(xG 1.3–1.2)
- Thu 22 Oct · A v Al-Hazm 2–2
- Mon 19 Oct · H v Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–3
- Thu 15 Oct · A v Al Khaleej Saihat 0–2
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Al Riyadh 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4 of their last 5.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 5.
- Al-Qadisiyah FC kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Al-Fayha have won 1 of their last 5.
- Al-Fayha have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Al-Fayha's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Al-Fayha's last 5.
- Al-Fayha kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Rest: 29 days · 0 matches in 14d
Al-Fayha
Rest: 27 days · 0 matches in 14d
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Dammam
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
- Our model makes Al-Qadisiyah FC the most likely result at 72%. Most likely is not likely — at 72% it does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 75%.
- How many goals are expected in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.