Championship · Regular Season - 8

Ayr UtdvStenhousemuir

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0 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold prices on this match — the market's own numbers are below — but we have published no forecast of our own for these markets yet, so there is nothing to weigh them against.

We don't have a model forecast for this match yet. Forecasts publish once a fixture is in the model's fitting window — usually a few days before kick-off. Here's what we do have right now:

  • • Market prices and price movement
  • • Head-to-head record and recent form
  • • Lineups and injuries where available
  • • Venue, kickoff time, and context

Check back closer to kick-off for our forecast, or explore matches we've already analyzed below.

For comparison, the market gives Ayr Utd a 42% chance. No model forecast has been published for this fixture.

Ayr UtdModel pendingMarket 42%
Ayr Utd:, no forecast published, market 42%

2Market

Open: 43% home · 29% draw · 28% away

Now: 42% home · 29% draw · 29% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Stenhousemuir

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home—vs42%
Draw—vs29%
Away—vs29%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.5—vs43%
Under 2.5—vs57%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.5—vs69%
Under 1.5—vs31%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.5—vs22%
Under 3.5—vs78%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes—vs50%
No—vs50%

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Ayr Utd

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

Stenhousemuir

Lineup not yet confirmed

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Ayr UtdWLLDL

  • Fri 18 Sep · A v Queen's Park 2–0
  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Inverness CT 1–3
  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Partick 0–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Morton 1–1
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Raith Rovers 0–2

StenhousemuirWWWWW

  • Sat 19 Sep · H v Arbroath 1–0
  • Tue 15 Sep · H v Partick 1–0
  • Fri 4 Sep · A v Livingston 1–0
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Inverness CT 3–1
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Queen's Park 2–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Ayr Utd
  • Ayr Utd have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Ayr Utd have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Ayr Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Ayr Utd's last 5.
  • Ayr Utd kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Stenhousemuir
  • Stenhousemuir have won 5 of their last 5.
  • Stenhousemuir have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Stenhousemuir's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Stenhousemuir's last 5.
  • Stenhousemuir kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Ayr Utd

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Stenhousemuir

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Somerset Park, Ayr · Referee: R. Lee

8Red flags