Championship · Regular Season - 15
DunfermlinevArbroath
Dunfermline
Arbroath·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (16%), then 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%). Dunfermline and Arbroath finish on some other score 56% of the time.
| Dun / Arb | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Dunfermline down the side and Arbroath across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Dunfermline47% · Match result
- Under 2.557% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Dunfermline the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Thu 5 Nov, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 43%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Dunfermline
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Arbroath
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DunfermlineDWWWD
- Yesterday · A v Raith Rovers 0–0
- Sat 31 Oct · H v Inverness CT 5–1
- Tue 27 Oct · A v Stenhousemuir 1–0
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Queen's Park 1–0
- Tue 20 Oct · H v Partick 1–1
ArbroathLLLLL
- Sat 31 Oct · H v Raith Rovers 0–4
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Livingston 0–1
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Inverness CT 0–2
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Morton 1–2
- Sat 3 Oct · A v Partick 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Dunfermline have won 3 of their last 5.
- Dunfermline have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Dunfermline's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Dunfermline's last 5.
- Dunfermline kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Arbroath have won 0 of their last 5.
- Arbroath have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 3 of Arbroath's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Arbroath's last 5.
- Arbroath kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Dunfermline W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Arbroath 1–1 Dunfermline
7Context
Dunfermline
Rest: 25 days · 0 matches in 14d
Arbroath
Rest: 31 days · 0 matches in 14d
East End Park, Dunfermline
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
- Our model makes Dunfermline the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 43%, and under 2.5 at 57%.
- Will both teams score in Dunfermline vs Arbroath?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.