Championship · Regular Season - 9
LivingstonvAyr Utd
Livingston
Ayr Utd·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Livingston and Ayr Utd finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Liv / Ayr | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Livingston down the side and Ayr Utd across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Livingston58% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Livingston the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Livingston
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Ayr Utd
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LivingstonWDWLL
- Fri 25 Sep · A v Raith Rovers 2–0
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Inverness CT 2–2
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Morton 4–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Stenhousemuir 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Arbroath 0–1
Ayr UtdLWLLD
- Fri 25 Sep · H v Stenhousemuir 0–1
- Fri 18 Sep · A v Queen's Park 2–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Inverness CT 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Partick 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Morton 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Livingston have won 2 of their last 5.
- Livingston have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Livingston's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Livingston's last 5.
- Livingston kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Ayr Utd have won 1 of their last 5.
- Ayr Utd have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Ayr Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Ayr Utd's last 5.
- Ayr Utd kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Livingston
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Ayr Utd
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Livingston vs Ayr Utd?
- Our model makes Livingston the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Livingston vs Ayr Utd?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Livingston vs Ayr Utd?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.