Championship · Regular Season - 7
LivingstonvInverness CT
Livingston
Inverness CT·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Livingston and Inverness CT finish on some other score 59% of the time.
| Liv / Inv | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Livingston down the side and Inverness CT across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Livingston46% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Livingston the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Livingston
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Inverness CT
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LivingstonWLLWL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Morton 4–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Stenhousemuir 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Arbroath 0–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Dunfermline 2–0
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Partick 0–2
Inverness CTWLLDD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Ayr Utd 3–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Raith Rovers 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Stenhousemuir 1–3
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Partick 1–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Arbroath 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Livingston have won 2 of their last 5.
- Livingston have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Livingston's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Livingston's last 5.
- Livingston kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Inverness CT have won 1 of their last 5.
- Inverness CT have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Inverness CT's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Inverness CT's last 5.
- Inverness CT kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Livingston
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Inverness CT
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston · Referee: C. Steven
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Livingston vs Inverness CT?
- Our model makes Livingston the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Livingston vs Inverness CT?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Livingston vs Inverness CT?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.