Championship · Regular Season - 7
Queen's ParkvAyr Utd
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.2–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Queen's Park and Ayr Utd finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Que / Ayr | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Queen's Park down the side and Ayr Utd across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 44%.
What we think
- Ayr Utd36% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Ayr Utd the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 44% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Ayr Utd a 43% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 27% home · 29% draw · 44% away
Now: 28% home · 29% draw · 43% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Ayr Utd
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Queen's Park
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Ayr Utd
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Queen's ParkLWDLL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Dunfermline 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Morton 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Partick 0–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Stenhousemuir 0–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Raith Rovers 1–2
Ayr UtdLLDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Inverness CT 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Partick 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Morton 1–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Raith Rovers 0–2
- Sat 8 Aug · A v Dunfermline 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Queen's Park have won 1 of their last 5.
- Queen's Park have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Queen's Park's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Queen's Park's last 5.
- Queen's Park kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Ayr Utd have won 0 of their last 5.
- Ayr Utd have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Ayr Utd's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Ayr Utd's last 5.
- Ayr Utd kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Queen's Park
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Ayr Utd
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
The City Stadium, Glasgow · Referee: J. Hay
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Queen's Park vs Ayr Utd?
- Our model makes Ayr Utd the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Queen's Park vs Ayr Utd?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Queen's Park vs Ayr Utd?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.