Championship · Regular Season - 6
StenhousemuirvPartick
Stenhousemuir
Partick·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Stenhousemuir and Partick finish on some other score 60% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Ste / Par | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Stenhousemuir down the side and Partick across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 70% against 75%.
What we think
- Partick39% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Partick the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 23% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 56%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, against the market’s 49% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Partick a 56% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 17% home · 23% draw · 60% away
Now: 20% home · 25% draw · 56% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Partick
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Stenhousemuir
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Partick
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
StenhousemuirWWWWD
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Livingston 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Inverness CT 3–1
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Queen's Park 2–0
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Morton 2–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Raith Rovers 1–1
PartickWDDWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Ayr Utd 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Queen's Park 0–0
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Inverness CT 1–1
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Livingston 2–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Morton 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Stenhousemuir have won 4 of their last 5.
- Stenhousemuir have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 1 of Stenhousemuir's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Stenhousemuir's last 5.
- Stenhousemuir kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Partick have won 3 of their last 5.
- Partick have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 0 of Partick's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Partick's last 5.
- Partick kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Stenhousemuir
Rest: 11 days · 1 match in 14d
Partick
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Ochilview Park, Stenhousemuir · Referee: S. Murdoch
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Stenhousemuir vs Partick?
- Our model makes Partick the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 56%.
- How many goals are expected in Stenhousemuir vs Partick?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Stenhousemuir vs Partick?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.