La Liga · Regular Season - 11

BarcelonavAlaves

·

6 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–12.9–0.8 goals

Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (8%). Barcelona and Alaves finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Barcelona goals down the side, Alaves across
Bar / Ala012345
0320.80.20.00.0
17620.70.10.0
210841.00.20.0
310831.00.20.0
47620.70.10.0
54310.40.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Barcelona down the side and Alaves across. These 92.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 7.5% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 85%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 67%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 46%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Barcelona79% · Match result
  • Over 2.567% · Goals
  • Yes55% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Barcelona the most likely of the three results, at 79% (we would not be surprised by anything from 72% to 85%). Most likely is not likely: at 79% this result does not happen 21% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 67%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home79%vs—
Draw13%vs—
Away8%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.567%vs—
Under 2.533%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.585%vs—
Under 1.515%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.546%vs—
Under 3.554%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes55%vs—
No45%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Barcelona

Lineup not yet confirmed

  • J. Bisiwu — out (Inactive)
  • J. Garcia — out (Knee Injury)
  • D. Livakovic — out (Inactive)
  • M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
  • H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
  • Rodri — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • A. Balde — out (Coach's decision)
  • F. de Jong — out (Knee Injury)
  • Gavi — out (Knee Injury)
  • R. Bardghji — out (Knee Injury)

Alaves

Lineup not yet confirmed

  • T. Martinez — out (Foot Injury)
  • A. Manas — out (Injury)
  • M. Rodriguez — out (Ankle Injury)
  • N. Valentini — out (Red Card)
  • T. Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
  • F. Garces — out (Suspended)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

BarcelonaWWWWW

  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Sevilla 3–1
  • Wed 16 Sep · H v Racing Santander 7–2
  • Sun 13 Sep · A v Levante 4–2
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Valencia 5–0
  • Mon 31 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 5–2(xG 2.8–1.1)

AlavesDLLWW

  • Sat 19 Sep · A v Athletic Club 0–0
  • Tue 15 Sep · H v Valencia 0–1
  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Racing Santander 1–2
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Osasuna 5–2
  • Fri 28 Aug · H v Villarreal 1–0(xG 0.8–1.3)

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Barcelona
  • Barcelona have won 5 of their last 5.
  • Barcelona have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 5 of Barcelona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Barcelona's last 5.
  • Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Alaves
  • Alaves have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Alaves have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Alaves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Alaves's last 5.
  • Alaves kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 8 meetings, Barcelona have won 6, Alaves 1, with 1 drawn.

Barcelona W–D–L
6–1–1
Over 2.5
4 of 8
Both scored
4 of 8
  • Alaves 1–0 Barcelona
  • Barcelona 3–1 Alaves
  • Barcelona 1–0 Alaves
  • Alaves 0–3 Barcelona
  • Alaves 1–3 Barcelona
  • Barcelona 2–1 Alaves
  • Alaves 0–1 Barcelona
  • Barcelona 1–1 Alaves

7Context

Barcelona

Rest: 42 days · 0 matches in 14d

Alaves

Rest: 42 days · 0 matches in 14d

Camp Nou, Barcelona · Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Barcelona vs Alaves?
Our model makes Barcelona the most likely result at 79%. Most likely is not likely — at 79% it does not happen 21% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Barcelona vs Alaves?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 67%, and under 2.5 at 33%.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Alaves?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Barcelona vs Alaves?
Barcelona's reported absences and doubts include J. Bisiwu, J. Garcia, D. Livakovic, M. Casado and 6 others. Alaves's include T. Martinez, A. Manas, M. Rodriguez, N. Valentini and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Alaves?
In their last 8 meetings, Barcelona have won 6, Alaves 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.