La Liga · Regular Season - 11
Deportivo La CorunavOsasuna
Deportivo La Coruna
Osasuna·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Dep / Osa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Deportivo La Coruna down the side and Osasuna across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Deportivo La Coruna42% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Deportivo La Coruna the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Deportivo La Coruna
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Carrillo — out (Injury)
- Angelino — out (Red Card)
- B. Nsongo — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Altimira — out (Red Card)
- A. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Hernandez — out (Groin Injury)
Osasuna
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Herrando — out (Muscle Injury)
- V. Rosier — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Gomez — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Oroz — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Deportivo La CorunaLDLDL
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Atletico Madrid 0–1
- Fri 16 Oct · H v Levante 1–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Real Sociedad 2–3
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Real Betis 1–1
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Sevilla 0–1
OsasunaLWLDL
- Mon 26 Oct · A v Sevilla 0–2
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Racing Santander 2–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Real Betis 2–5
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Rayo Vallecano 1–1
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Atletico Madrid 0–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 0 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Osasuna have won 1 of their last 5.
- Osasuna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Osasuna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Osasuna's last 5.
- Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Osasuna
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio de Riazor, La Coruna
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
- Our model makes Deportivo La Coruna the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna?
- Deportivo La Coruna's reported absences and doubts include N. Carrillo, Angelino, B. Nsongo, M. Casado and 3 others. Osasuna's include J. Herrando, V. Rosier, M. Gomez, A. Oroz. Each player's status is in the availability section above.