La Liga · Regular Season - 12
EspanyolvDeportivo La Coruna
Espanyol
Deportivo La Coruna·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Esp / Dep | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Espanyol down the side and Deportivo La Coruna across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Espanyol49% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Espanyol the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Espanyol
Lineup not yet confirmed
- O. El Hilali — out (Red Card)
- Jofre — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gorosabel — out (Injury)
- B. Zaragoza — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Puado — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Garcia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Cabrera — out (Red Card)
Deportivo La Coruna
Lineup not yet confirmed
- N. Carrillo — out (Injury)
- Angelino — out (Red Card)
- B. Nsongo — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Altimira — out (Red Card)
- A. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Hernandez — out (Groin Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
EspanyolWLLDL
- Fri 30 Oct · A v Villarreal 1–0
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Racing Santander 1–2
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Atletico Madrid 0–1
- Fri 9 Oct · A v Malaga 1–1
- Fri 18 Sep · H v Elche 1–3
Deportivo La CorunaLDLDL
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Atletico Madrid 0–1
- Fri 16 Oct · H v Levante 1–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Real Sociedad 2–3
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Real Betis 1–1
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Sevilla 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Espanyol have won 1 of their last 5.
- Espanyol have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Espanyol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Espanyol's last 5.
- Espanyol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 0 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Espanyol
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
RCDE Stadium, Cornella
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model makes Espanyol the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna?
- Espanyol's reported absences and doubts include O. El Hilali, Jofre, A. Gorosabel, B. Zaragoza and 3 others. Deportivo La Coruna's include N. Carrillo, Angelino, B. Nsongo, M. Casado and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.