La Liga · Regular Season - 6
LevantevAthletic Club
Levante
Athletic Club·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Levante and Athletic Club finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lev / Ath | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Levante down the side and Athletic Club across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 29% against 31%.
What we think
- Athletic Club37% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Athletic Club the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (53%).
For comparison, the market gives Athletic Club a 45% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 28% home · 28% draw · 45% away
Now: 28% home · 27% draw · 45% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Levante
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Dela — out (Overload)
- E. Bardeli — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Etta Eyong — out (Muscle Injury)
- H. Sotelo — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Brugue — out (Red Card)
- A. Primo — out (Shoulder Injury)
Athletic Club
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Laporte — out (Red Card)
- G. Guruzeta — out (Knee Injury)
- N. Williams — out (Thigh Injury)
- O. Sancet — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Djalo — out (Illness)
- A. Gorosabel — out (Transfer negotiations)
- P. Canales — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Prados Diaz — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Vivian — out (Hamstring Injury)
- N. Serrano — out (Coach's decision)
- U. Vencedor — out (Inactive)
- U. Egiluz — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LevanteDDLLD
- Fri 16 Oct · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
- Mon 12 Oct · H v Sevilla 3–3
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Villarreal 1–3
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Barcelona 2–4
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Malaga 0–0
Athletic ClubDDDWW
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Valencia 0–0
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Alaves 0–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Elche 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atletico Madrid 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–0(xG 2.6–0.6)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Levante have won 0 of their last 5.
- Levante have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Levante's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Levante's last 5.
- Levante kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have won 2 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Athletic Club's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Athletic Club's last 5.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Levante have won 0, Athletic Club 3, with 1 drawn.
- Levante W–D–L
- 0–1–3
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 4
- Both scored
- 2 of 4
- Athletic Club 4–2 Levante
- Levante 0–2 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 3–1 Levante
- Levante 0–0 Athletic Club
7Context
Levante
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Athletic Club
Rest: 4 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia · Referee: Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Our model makes Athletic Club the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Levante's reported absences and doubts include Dela, E. Bardeli, K. Etta Eyong, H. Sotelo and 2 others. Athletic Club's include I. Ruiz de Galarreta, A. Laporte, G. Guruzeta, N. Williams and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Levante vs Athletic Club?
- Levante line up in a 4-3-3, Athletic Club in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Athletic Club?
- In their last 4 meetings, Levante have won 0, Athletic Club 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.