La Liga · Regular Season - 11
LevantevAtletico Madrid
Levante
Atletico Madrid·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Levante and Atletico Madrid finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lev / Atl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Levante down the side and Atletico Madrid across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Atletico Madrid47% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Atletico Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Levante
Lineup not yet confirmed
- H. Sotelo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Etta Eyong — out (Injury)
- R. Brugue — out (Red Card)
- A. Primo — out (Shoulder Injury)
Atletico Madrid
Lineup not yet confirmed
- C. Romero — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Lemar — out (Coach's decision)
- J. Alvarez — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Sorloth — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Esteban — doubtful (Injury)
- P. Barrios — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Le Normand — out (Red Card)
- O. Vargas — out (Coach's decision)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LevanteLLDWD
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Villarreal 1–3
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Barcelona 2–4
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Malaga 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Real Betis 5–2(xG 3.0–2.0)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
Atletico MadridWWWLW
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Real Madrid 2–1
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Osasuna 4–0
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Real Sociedad 3–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Athletic Club 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sevilla 3–1(xG 0.9–1.0)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Levante have won 1 of their last 5.
- Levante have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Levante's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Levante's last 5.
- Levante kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have won 4 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Atletico Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atletico Madrid's last 5.
- Atletico Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Levante have won 1, Atletico Madrid 1, with 2 drawn.
- Levante W–D–L
- 1–2–1
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 4
- Both scored
- 2 of 4
- Levante 0–0 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 3–1 Levante
- Atletico Madrid 0–1 Levante
- Levante 2–2 Atletico Madrid
7Context
Levante
Rest: 41 days · 0 matches in 14d
Atletico Madrid
Rest: 41 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia · Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model makes Atletico Madrid the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Levante vs Atletico Madrid?
- Levante's reported absences and doubts include H. Sotelo, K. Etta Eyong, R. Brugue, A. Primo. Atletico Madrid's include C. Romero, T. Lemar, J. Alvarez, A. Sorloth and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Atletico Madrid?
- In their last 4 meetings, Levante have won 1, Atletico Madrid 1, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.