La Liga · Regular Season - 12
MalagavRacing Santander
Malaga
Racing Santander·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Malaga and Racing Santander finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mal / Rac | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Malaga down the side and Racing Santander across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Malaga44% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Malaga the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Malaga
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
- H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
- A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
- A. Pastor — out (Illness)
- C. Dotor — out (Illness)
- A. Nino — out (Injury)
- J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Murillo — out (Injury)
- Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)
Racing Santander
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Almeida — out (Red Card)
- S. Eriksson — out (Shoulder Injury)
- I. Luque — out (Inactive)
- Pedro Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Martin — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Guliashvili — out (Leg Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MalagaLDLDL
- Yesterday · A v Real Betis 1–2
- Fri 23 Oct · A v Alaves 1–1
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Real Sociedad 2–5
- Fri 9 Oct · H v Espanyol 1–1
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Getafe 0–1
Racing SantanderWLDLL
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Espanyol 2–1
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Osasuna 0–2
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Valencia 2–2
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Celta Vigo 0–5
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Barcelona 2–7
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Malaga have won 0 of their last 5.
- Malaga have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Malaga's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Malaga's last 5.
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Racing Santander have won 1 of their last 5.
- Racing Santander have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Racing Santander's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Racing Santander's last 5.
- Racing Santander kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Malaga
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Racing Santander
Rest: 14 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Malaga vs Racing Santander?
- Our model makes Malaga the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Malaga vs Racing Santander?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Malaga vs Racing Santander?
- Malaga's reported absences and doubts include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Racing Santander's include A. Almeida, S. Eriksson, I. Luque, Pedro Felipe and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.