La Liga · Regular Season - 12
OsasunavAthletic Club
Osasuna
Athletic Club·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Osasuna and Athletic Club finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Osa / Ath | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Osasuna down the side and Athletic Club across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Osasuna36% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Osasuna the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Osasuna
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Herrando — out (Muscle Injury)
- V. Rosier — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Gomez — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Oroz — out (Muscle Injury)
Athletic Club
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Gorosabel — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guruzeta — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Canales — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Djalo — out (Coach's decision)
- B. Prados Diaz — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Vivian — out (Hamstring Injury)
- N. Serrano — out (Coach's decision)
- U. Vencedor — out (Inactive)
- U. Egiluz — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
OsasunaLWLDL
- Mon 26 Oct · A v Sevilla 0–2
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Racing Santander 2–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Real Betis 2–5
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Rayo Vallecano 1–1
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Atletico Madrid 0–4
Athletic ClubWLDDD
- Sun 25 Oct · H v Getafe 4–0(xG 0.7–0.4)
- Wed 21 Oct · A v Levante 1–3
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Valencia 0–0
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Alaves 0–0
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Elche 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Osasuna have won 1 of their last 5.
- Osasuna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Osasuna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Osasuna's last 5.
- Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have won 1 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Athletic Club's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Athletic Club's last 5.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Osasuna have won 1, Athletic Club 5, with 4 drawn.
- Osasuna W–D–L
- 1–4–5
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 4 of 10
- Athletic Club 1–0 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–0 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–2 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 2–2 Osasuna
- Osasuna 0–2 Athletic Club
- Osasuna 2–0 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–0 Osasuna
- Athletic Club 2–0 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–3 Athletic Club
7Context
Osasuna
Rest: 12 days · 1 match in 14d
Athletic Club
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Common questions
- Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
- Our model makes Osasuna the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
- Osasuna's reported absences and doubts include J. Herrando, V. Rosier, M. Gomez, A. Oroz. Athletic Club's include A. Gorosabel, G. Guruzeta, P. Canales, A. Djalo and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Athletic Club?
- In their last 10 meetings, Osasuna have won 1, Athletic Club 5, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.