La Liga · Regular Season - 11
Real BetisvMalaga
Real Betis
Malaga·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (12%), then 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Real Betis and Malaga finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Mal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Betis down the side and Malaga across. These 98.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Real Betis63% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Real Betis the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Betis
Lineup not yet confirmed
- J. Morante — out (Injury)
- A. Ezzalzouli — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Losada — out (Inactive)
- D. Llorente — out (Broken nose)
- D. Ceballos — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- A. Ruibal — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Petit — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lo Celso — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Conde — out (Shoulder Injury)
Malaga
Lineup not yet confirmed
- A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
- H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
- A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
- A. Pastor — out (Illness)
- C. Dotor — out (Illness)
- A. Nino — out (Injury)
- J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Murillo — out (Injury)
- Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real BetisDWWWL
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
- Thu 17 Sep · H v Getafe 1–0
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Villarreal 2–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Real Madrid 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Levante 2–5(xG 2.0–3.0)
MalagaLLDDL
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Getafe 0–1
- Thu 17 Sep · H v Villarreal 1–3
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Levante 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Real Madrid 0–4(xG 0.7–2.3)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Betis have won 3 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Real Betis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Betis's last 5.
- Real Betis kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Malaga have won 0 of their last 5.
- Malaga have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Malaga's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Malaga's last 5.
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Real Betis
Rest: 41 days · 0 matches in 14d
Malaga
Rest: 41 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla · Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Betis vs Malaga?
- Our model makes Real Betis the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Real Betis vs Malaga?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Malaga?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Betis vs Malaga?
- Real Betis's reported absences and doubts include J. Morante, A. Ezzalzouli, I. Losada, D. Llorente and 6 others. Malaga's include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.