La Liga · Regular Season - 12
SevillavAlaves
Sevilla
Alaves·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Sevilla and Alaves finish on some other score 67% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Sev / Ala | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sevilla down the side and Alaves across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Sevilla43% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Sevilla the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sevilla
Lineup not yet confirmed
- R. Vargas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Sangante — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Stassin — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Salas — out (Red Card)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Marcao — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Gonzalez — out (Muscle Injury)
Alaves
Lineup not yet confirmed
- T. Martinez — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Manas — out (Injury)
- M. Rodriguez — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Valentini — out (Red Card)
- T. Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Garces — out (Suspended)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SevillaWLDLW
- Mon 26 Oct · H v Osasuna 2–0
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Real Madrid 1–4
- Mon 12 Oct · A v Levante 3–3
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Barcelona 1–3
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–0
AlavesLDLLD
- Yesterday · A v Barcelona 1–6
- Fri 23 Oct · H v Malaga 1–1
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Celta Vigo 1–2
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Atletico Madrid 1–2
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Athletic Club 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Sevilla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sevilla's last 5.
- Sevilla kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Alaves have won 0 of their last 5.
- Alaves have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Alaves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Alaves's last 5.
- Alaves kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Sevilla have won 1, Alaves 3, with 4 drawn.
- Sevilla W–D–L
- 1–4–3
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 8
- Both scored
- 7 of 8
- Sevilla 1–1 Alaves
- Alaves 1–2 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–1 Alaves
- Alaves 2–1 Sevilla
- Sevilla 2–3 Alaves
- Alaves 4–3 Sevilla
- Alaves 0–0 Sevilla
- Sevilla 2–2 Alaves
7Context
Sevilla
Rest: 11 days · 2 matches in 14d
Alaves
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Common questions
- Who will win Sevilla vs Alaves?
- Our model makes Sevilla the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Alaves?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sevilla vs Alaves?
- Sevilla's reported absences and doubts include R. Vargas, A. Sangante, L. Stassin, K. Salas and 3 others. Alaves's include T. Martinez, A. Manas, M. Rodriguez, N. Valentini and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?
- In their last 8 meetings, Sevilla have won 1, Alaves 3, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.