La Liga · Regular Season - 12
ValenciavReal Madrid
Valencia
Real Madrid·
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Valencia and Real Madrid finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Val / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Valencia down the side and Real Madrid across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Real Madrid54% · Match result
- Over 2.555% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Real Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 62%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 55%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Valencia
Lineup not yet confirmed
- L. Rioja — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Foulquier — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Tarrega — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Diakhaby — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vazquez — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- U. Sadiq — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Almeida — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Rodriguez — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Maffeo — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Mari — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Lopez — out (Knee Injury)
- J. De Haas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Copete — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Canos — out (Knee Injury)
Real Madrid
Lineup not yet confirmed
- R. Asencio — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tchouameni — out (Muscle Injury)
- Endrick — out (Muscle Injury)
- Rodrygo — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Pitarch — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mendy — out (Hip Injury)
- Eder Militao — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ValenciaLDDLW
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Villarreal 1–2
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Athletic Club 0–0
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Racing Santander 2–2
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Real Sociedad 2–3
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Alaves 1–0
Real MadridWWWLW
- Sun 25 Oct · A v Barcelona 2–1
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Sevilla 4–1
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Villarreal 1–0
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Atletico Madrid 1–2
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Elche 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5.
- Valencia have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Valencia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Valencia's last 5.
- Valencia kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Madrid's last 5.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Valencia have won 2, Real Madrid 7, with 1 drawn.
- Valencia W–D–L
- 2–1–7
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia
- Real Madrid 1–2 Valencia
- Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid
- Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 5–1 Valencia
- Valencia 1–0 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–0 Valencia
- Real Madrid 4–1 Valencia
- Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid
7Context
Valencia
Rest: 14 days · 0 matches in 14d
Real Madrid
Rest: 13 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Common questions
- Who will win Valencia vs Real Madrid?
- Our model makes Real Madrid the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 55%, and under 2.5 at 45%.
- Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Valencia vs Real Madrid?
- Valencia's reported absences and doubts include L. Rioja, D. Foulquier, C. Tarrega, M. Diakhaby and 10 others. Real Madrid's include R. Asencio, A. Tchouameni, Endrick, Rodrygo and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Madrid?
- In their last 10 meetings, Valencia have won 2, Real Madrid 7, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.