La Liga · Regular Season - 11
VillarrealvEspanyol
Villarreal
Espanyol·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Villarreal and Espanyol finish on some other score 71% of the time.
| Vil / Esp | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Villarreal down the side and Espanyol across. These 97.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Villarreal61% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Villarreal the most likely of the three results, at 61% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 70%). Most likely is not likely: at 61% this result does not happen 39% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Villarreal
Lineup not yet confirmed
- S. Comesana — out (Injury)
- J. Foyth — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- W. Kambwala — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Diatta — out (Red Card)
Espanyol
Lineup not yet confirmed
- O. El Hilali — out (Red Card)
- Jofre — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gorosabel — out (Injury)
- B. Zaragoza — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Puado — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Garcia — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Cabrera — out (Red Card)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VillarrealWWLLL
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Levante 3–1
- Thu 17 Sep · A v Malaga 3–1
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Real Betis 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Deportivo La Coruna 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Alaves 0–1(xG 1.3–0.8)
EspanyolLLWDL
- Fri 18 Sep · H v Elche 1–3
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–2
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Osasuna 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Sevilla 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Real Sociedad 1–2(xG 0.8–1.7)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5.
- Villarreal have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Villarreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Villarreal's last 5.
- Villarreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Espanyol have won 1 of their last 5.
- Espanyol have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Espanyol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Espanyol's last 5.
- Espanyol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Villarreal have won 7, Espanyol 0, with 1 drawn.
- Villarreal W–D–L
- 7–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- Villarreal 4–1 Espanyol
- Espanyol 0–2 Villarreal
- Villarreal 1–0 Espanyol
- Espanyol 1–2 Villarreal
- Villarreal 4–2 Espanyol
- Espanyol 0–1 Villarreal
- Villarreal 5–1 Espanyol
- Espanyol 0–0 Villarreal
7Context
Villarreal
Rest: 40 days · 0 matches in 14d
Espanyol
Rest: 42 days · 0 matches in 14d
Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · Referee: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Common questions
- Who will win Villarreal vs Espanyol?
- Our model makes Villarreal the most likely result at 61%. Most likely is not likely — at 61% it does not happen 39% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Espanyol?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Villarreal vs Espanyol?
- Villarreal's reported absences and doubts include S. Comesana, J. Foyth, W. Kambwala, A. Diatta. Espanyol's include O. El Hilali, Jofre, A. Gorosabel, B. Zaragoza and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Espanyol?
- In their last 8 meetings, Villarreal have won 7, Espanyol 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.