Segunda División · Regular Season - 6
AD Ceuta FCvValladolid
AD Ceuta FC
Valladolid·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). AD Ceuta FC and Valladolid finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| AD / Val | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AD Ceuta FC down the side and Valladolid across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- AD Ceuta FC48% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes AD Ceuta FC the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
AD Ceuta FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Valladolid
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AD Ceuta FCLLLLL
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Burgos 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Celta de Vigo II 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Mallorca 0–3
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Las Palmas 0–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v FC Andorra 1–5
ValladolidLWDLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Oviedo 0–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v FC Andorra 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cadiz 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Eibar 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Mallorca 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- AD Ceuta FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- AD Ceuta FC have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of AD Ceuta FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of AD Ceuta FC's last 5.
- AD Ceuta FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Valladolid have won 1 of their last 5.
- Valladolid have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Valladolid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Valladolid's last 5.
- Valladolid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
AD Ceuta FC
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Valladolid
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta · Referee: S. Ais
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
- Our model makes AD Ceuta FC the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
- AD Ceuta FC line up in a 4-3-3, Valladolid in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.