Segunda División · Regular Season - 6
AlmeriavCelta de Vigo II
Almeria
Celta de Vigo II·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Almeria and Celta de Vigo II finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Alm / Cel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Almeria down the side and Celta de Vigo II across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Almeria48% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Almeria the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 24% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Almeria
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Celta de Vigo II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AlmeriaWWLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Cordoba 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Cadiz 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sabadell 0–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Tenerife 0–1
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Eldense 3–0
Celta de Vigo IILWLWD
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Eibar 0–4
- Sat 5 Sep · A v AD Ceuta FC 2–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Castellón 1–2
- Mon 24 Aug · H v FC Andorra 4–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Cadiz 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Almeria have won 3 of their last 5.
- Almeria have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Almeria's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Almeria's last 5.
- Almeria kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 2 of their last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Celta de Vigo II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Celta de Vigo II's last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Almeria
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Celta de Vigo II
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Almería · Referee: R. Sanchez
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model makes Almeria the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Almeria vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.