Segunda División · Regular Season - 13
BurgosvCelta de Vigo II
Burgos
Celta de Vigo II·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.0–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (14%). Burgos and Celta de Vigo II finish on some other score 58% of the time. We show 1–0 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bur / Cel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Burgos down the side and Celta de Vigo II across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Burgos36% · Match result
- Under 2.557% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Burgos the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 22% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 43%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Burgos
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Celta de Vigo II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BurgosWWLLW
- Mon 26 Oct · A v FC Andorra 3–2
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Sabadell 1–0
- Mon 12 Oct · H v Granada CF 0–1
- Sat 3 Oct · A v Almeria 1–2
- Sun 27 Sep · H v Eldense 1–0
Celta de Vigo IIDLDWL
- Yesterday · H v Cordoba 2–2
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Girona 1–5
- Mon 19 Oct · H v Tenerife 1–1
- Sat 10 Oct · H v Real Sociedad II 4–1
- Sun 4 Oct · A v Sporting Gijon 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Burgos have won 3 of their last 5.
- Burgos have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Burgos's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Burgos's last 5.
- Burgos kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 1 of their last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Celta de Vigo II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Celta de Vigo II's last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Burgos
Rest: 12 days · 1 match in 14d
Celta de Vigo II
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model makes Burgos the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 43%, and under 2.5 at 57%.
- Will both teams score in Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.