Segunda División · Regular Season - 8
CastellónvAD Ceuta FC
Castellón
AD Ceuta FC·
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (10%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Castellón and AD Ceuta FC finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Cas / AD | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Castellón down the side and AD Ceuta FC across. These 96.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 50%.
What we think
- Castellón67% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 62% against a market price of 50% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals.
Our forecast makes Castellón the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 78%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 78%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 71% — a 10 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Castellón a 78% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 14% draw · 7% away
Now: 78% home · 14% draw · 7% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Castellón
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
AD Ceuta FC
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CastellónWWWWW
- Mon 28 Sep · A v Leganes 2–0
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Tenerife 5–0
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Girona 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Albacete 2–0
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Celta de Vigo II 2–1
AD Ceuta FCWDLLL
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Real Sociedad II 3–1
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Valladolid 1–1
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Burgos 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Celta de Vigo II 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Mallorca 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Castellón have won 5 of their last 5.
- Castellón have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Castellón's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Castellón's last 5.
- Castellón kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- AD Ceuta FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- AD Ceuta FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of AD Ceuta FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of AD Ceuta FC's last 5.
- AD Ceuta FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Castellón
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
AD Ceuta FC
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Municipal de Castalia
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC?
- Our model makes Castellón the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 78%.
- How many goals are expected in Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.