Segunda División · Regular Season - 5
Celta de Vigo IIvEibar
Celta de Vigo II
Eibar·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Celta de Vigo II and Eibar finish on some other score 61% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Cel / Eib | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Celta de Vigo II down the side and Eibar across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 1.5: 71% against 73%.
What we think
- Celta de Vigo II41% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Celta de Vigo II the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 24% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Eibar the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 28%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, which is what the market has it at too (46%).
For comparison, the market gives Eibar a 42% chance. Our model makes it 29%.
2Market
Open: 27% home · 30% draw · 43% away
Now: 28% home · 30% draw · 42% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Celta de Vigo II
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Celta de Vigo II
Confirmed · 3-4-3
No reported absences.
Eibar
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Celta de Vigo IIWLWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v AD Ceuta FC 2–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Castellón 1–2
- Mon 24 Aug · H v FC Andorra 4–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Cadiz 0–0
EibarWWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Granada CF 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Andorra 1–0
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Valladolid 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Tenerife 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 2 of their last 4.
- Celta de Vigo II have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 2 of Celta de Vigo II's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Celta de Vigo II's last 4.
- Celta de Vigo II kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
- Eibar have won 3 of their last 4.
- Eibar have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 2 of Eibar's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Eibar's last 4.
- Eibar kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Celta de Vigo II
Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d
Eibar
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo · Referee: M. Perez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
- Our model makes Celta de Vigo II the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Eibar at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Celta de Vigo II vs Eibar?
- Celta de Vigo II line up in a 3-4-3, Eibar in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.