Segunda División · Regular Season - 8
GironavMallorca
Girona
Mallorca·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Girona and Mallorca finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Gir / Mal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Girona down the side and Mallorca across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 30% against 28%.
What we think
- Girona51% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Girona
Best price 2.36 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 51% against a market price of 41% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 8 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
Our forecast makes Girona the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 41%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Girona a 41% chance. Our model makes it 51%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Now: 41% home · 28% draw · 31% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Girona
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Mallorca
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GironaWWLWW
- Fri 25 Sep · H v Albacete 2–0
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Cadiz 2–1
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Castellón 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sporting Gijon 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Las Palmas 5–2
MallorcaLWWDW
- Sun 27 Sep · H v Almeria 0–1
- Sat 19 Sep · A v Real Sociedad II 1–0
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Sabadell 2–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Eldense 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v AD Ceuta FC 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Girona have won 4 of their last 5.
- Girona have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Girona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Girona's last 5.
- Girona kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Mallorca have won 3 of their last 5.
- Mallorca have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Mallorca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Mallorca's last 5.
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Girona have won 4, Mallorca 3, with 1 drawn.
- Girona W–D–L
- 4–1–3
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 5 of 8
- Girona 0–1 Mallorca
- Mallorca 1–2 Girona
- Girona 1–0 Mallorca
- Mallorca 2–1 Girona
- Mallorca 1–0 Girona
- Girona 5–3 Mallorca
- Girona 2–1 Mallorca
- Mallorca 1–1 Girona
7Context
Girona
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Mallorca
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Girona vs Mallorca?
- Our model makes Girona the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Girona vs Mallorca?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Girona vs Mallorca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
- In their last 8 meetings, Girona have won 4, Mallorca 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.