Segunda División · Regular Season - 6
Las PalmasvBurgos
Las Palmas
Burgos·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.1–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (17%), then 0-0 (16%), 1-1 (13%). Las Palmas and Burgos finish on some other score 54% of the time.
| Las / Bur | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Las Palmas down the side and Burgos across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Las Palmas44% · Match result
- Under 2.560% · Goals
- No54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Las Palmas the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 40%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Las Palmas
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Burgos
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Las PalmasWDLWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Cadiz 1–0
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Leganes 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Girona 2–5
- Sat 22 Aug · A v AD Ceuta FC 2–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Albacete 2–1
BurgosWDDLW
- Fri 11 Sep · H v AD Ceuta FC 3–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Oviedo 0–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Real Sociedad II 2–2
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Sporting Gijon 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Cordoba 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Las Palmas have won 3 of their last 5.
- Las Palmas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Las Palmas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Las Palmas's last 5.
- Las Palmas kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
- Burgos have won 2 of their last 5.
- Burgos have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Burgos's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Burgos's last 5.
- Burgos kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Las Palmas
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Burgos
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria · Referee: J. Guzman
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Las Palmas vs Burgos?
- Our model makes Las Palmas the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 40%, and under 2.5 at 60%.
- Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 46% chance, against 54% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Las Palmas vs Burgos?
- Las Palmas line up in a 4-4-2, Burgos in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.