Segunda División · Regular Season - 8
Las PalmasvValladolid
Las Palmas
Valladolid·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.6–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Las Palmas and Valladolid finish on some other score 61% of the time.
| Las / Val | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Las Palmas down the side and Valladolid across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 48% against 47%.
What we think
- Las Palmas57% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Las Palmas
Best price 2.25 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 57% against a market price of 44% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 73% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 2 meetings averaged 2.5 goals.
Our forecast makes Las Palmas the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, which is what the market has it at too (47%).
For comparison, the market gives Las Palmas a 44% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 28% draw · 28% away
Now: 44% home · 28% draw · 28% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Las Palmas
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Valladolid
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Las PalmasLLWDL
- Sun 27 Sep · A v Eibar 2–3
- Sun 20 Sep · H v Burgos 1–2
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Cadiz 1–0
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Leganes 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Girona 2–5
ValladolidWDLWD
- Sun 27 Sep · H v Cordoba 3–1
- Sun 20 Sep · A v AD Ceuta FC 1–1
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Oviedo 0–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v FC Andorra 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cadiz 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Las Palmas have won 1 of their last 5.
- Las Palmas have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Las Palmas's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Las Palmas's last 5.
- Las Palmas kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5.
- Valladolid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Valladolid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Valladolid's last 5.
- Valladolid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Las Palmas have won 1, Valladolid 0, with 1 drawn.
- Las Palmas W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Valladolid 1–1 Las Palmas
- Las Palmas 2–1 Valladolid
7Context
Las Palmas
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Valladolid
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
- Our model makes Las Palmas the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Valladolid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Valladolid?
- In their last 2 meetings, Las Palmas have won 1, Valladolid 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.