Segunda División · Regular Season - 12
MallorcavCadiz
Mallorca
Cadiz·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.6–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Mallorca and Cadiz finish on some other score 61% of the time.
| Mal / Cad | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Mallorca down the side and Cadiz across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Mallorca56% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Mallorca the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Mallorca
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Cadiz
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MallorcaDDWDL
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Leganes 1–1
- Sat 17 Oct · A v Eibar 1–1
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Las Palmas 3–1
- Sun 4 Oct · A v Girona 0–0
- Sun 27 Sep · H v Almeria 0–1
CadizWLLWD
- Sun 25 Oct · H v AD Ceuta FC 3–1
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Granada CF 0–2
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Sporting Gijon 0–1
- Sat 3 Oct · H v Leganes 4–0
- Sat 26 Sep · A v Tenerife 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Mallorca have won 1 of their last 5.
- Mallorca have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Mallorca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Mallorca's last 5.
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Cadiz have won 2 of their last 5.
- Cadiz have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Cadiz's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Cadiz's last 5.
- Cadiz kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Mallorca have won 2, Cadiz 1, with 3 drawn.
- Mallorca W–D–L
- 2–3–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 6
- Both scored
- 4 of 6
- Cadiz 1–1 Mallorca
- Mallorca 1–1 Cadiz
- Mallorca 1–0 Cadiz
- Cadiz 2–0 Mallorca
- Mallorca 2–1 Cadiz
- Cadiz 1–1 Mallorca
7Context
Mallorca
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Cadiz
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de Mallorca
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Common questions
- Who will win Mallorca vs Cadiz?
- Our model makes Mallorca the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Cadiz?
- In their last 6 meetings, Mallorca have won 2, Cadiz 1, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.