Segunda División · Regular Season - 12
Real Sociedad IIvGirona
Real Sociedad II
Girona·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Real Sociedad II and Girona finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Gir | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Sociedad II down the side and Girona across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Girona49% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Girona the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Sociedad II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Girona
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real Sociedad IILLLLL
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Las Palmas 0–1
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Almeria 2–4
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Celta de Vigo II 1–4
- Sun 4 Oct · H v Granada CF 2–3
- Sat 26 Sep · A v AD Ceuta FC 1–3
GironaWWDDW
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Celta de Vigo II 5–1
- Sun 18 Oct · H v FC Andorra 2–0
- Mon 12 Oct · A v Tenerife 1–1
- Sun 4 Oct · H v Mallorca 0–0
- Fri 25 Sep · H v Albacete 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Sociedad II have won 0 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad II have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Sociedad II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Sociedad II's last 5.
- Real Sociedad II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Girona have won 3 of their last 5.
- Girona have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Girona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Girona's last 5.
- Girona kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Real Sociedad II
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Girona
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta, San Sebastian · Referee: Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Sociedad II vs Girona?
- Our model makes Girona the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad II vs Girona?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Real Sociedad II vs Girona?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.