Segunda División · Regular Season - 8
Real Sociedad IIvGranada CF
Real Sociedad II
Granada CF·
1Headline
We expect
2–11.4–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Real Sociedad II and Granada CF finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Gra | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Sociedad II down the side and Granada CF across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 49%.
What we think
- Real Sociedad II39% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Sociedad II the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 49% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Real Sociedad II a 37% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 28% draw · 36% away
Now: 37% home · 28% draw · 36% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Sociedad II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Granada CF
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real Sociedad IILLWDD
- Sat 26 Sep · A v AD Ceuta FC 1–3
- Sat 19 Sep · H v Mallorca 0–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v FC Andorra 3–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Tenerife 1–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Burgos 2–2
Granada CFLLDLW
- Sat 26 Sep · H v FC Andorra 2–3
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Leganes 2–3
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Albacete 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Eibar 0–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cordoba 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Sociedad II have won 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad II have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Sociedad II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Real Sociedad II's last 5.
- Real Sociedad II kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Granada CF have won 1 of their last 5.
- Granada CF have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Granada CF's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Granada CF's last 5.
- Granada CF kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Real Sociedad II
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Granada CF
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio Zubieta, San Sebastian
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF?
- Our model makes Real Sociedad II the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.