Segunda División · Regular Season - 13
SabadellvReal Sociedad II
Sabadell
Real Sociedad II·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.4–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (15%), then 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Sabadell and Real Sociedad II finish on some other score 59% of the time.
| Sab / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sabadell down the side and Real Sociedad II across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Sabadell50% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Sabadell the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 65%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Today, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sabadell
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Real Sociedad II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SabadellLDLWD
- Yesterday · A v Albacete 1–2
- Sun 25 Oct · H v Tenerife 1–1(xG 1.8–0.4)
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Burgos 0–1
- Sat 10 Oct · A v AD Ceuta FC 2–1
- Sun 4 Oct · H v FC Andorra 0–0
Real Sociedad IIWLLLL
- Yesterday · H v Girona 1–0
- Sat 24 Oct · A v Las Palmas 0–1
- Sat 17 Oct · H v Almeria 2–4
- Sat 10 Oct · A v Celta de Vigo II 1–4
- Sun 4 Oct · H v Granada CF 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sabadell have won 1 of their last 5.
- Sabadell have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sabadell's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sabadell's last 5.
- Sabadell kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad II have won 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad II have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Sociedad II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Sociedad II's last 5.
- Real Sociedad II kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sabadell
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Real Sociedad II
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta, Sabadell
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II?
- Our model makes Sabadell the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.