Segunda División · Regular Season - 8
Sporting GijonvCelta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
Celta de Vigo II·
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II finish on some other score 65% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Spo / Cel | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sporting Gijon down the side and Celta de Vigo II across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 48% against 56%.
What we think
- Sporting Gijon36% · Match result
- Under 2.552% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sporting Gijon the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 20% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 61%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 48%, against the market’s 56% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Sporting Gijon a 61% chance. Our model makes it 36%.
2Market
Open: 61% home · 23% draw · 16% away
Now: 61% home · 23% draw · 16% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sporting Gijon
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Celta de Vigo II
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sporting GijonLWLLW
- Sun 27 Sep · A v Oviedo 0–2
- Sat 19 Sep · A v FC Andorra 3–1
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Eldense 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Girona 0–2
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Tenerife 1–0
Celta de Vigo IIDLLWL
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Sabadell 1–1
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Almeria 0–2
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Eibar 0–4
- Sat 5 Sep · A v AD Ceuta FC 2–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Castellón 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sporting Gijon have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sporting Gijon have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Sporting Gijon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Sporting Gijon's last 5.
- Sporting Gijon kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II have won 1 of their last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Celta de Vigo II's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Celta de Vigo II's last 5.
- Celta de Vigo II kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sporting Gijon
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Celta de Vigo II
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model makes Sporting Gijon the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 61%.
- How many goals are expected in Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 48%, and under 2.5 at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.