Segunda División · Regular Season - 5
Sporting GijonvEldense
Sporting Gijon
Eldense·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (12%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Sporting Gijon and Eldense finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Spo / Eld | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sporting Gijon down the side and Eldense across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 52% against 47%.
What we think
- Sporting Gijon55% · Match result
- Over 2.552% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Sporting Gijon the most likely of the three results, at 55% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 55% this result does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 58%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, against the market’s 47% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Sporting Gijon a 58% chance. Our model makes it 55%.
2Market
Open: 56% home · 26% draw · 17% away
Now: 58% home · 25% draw · 16% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Sporting Gijon
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sporting Gijon
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Eldense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Sporting GijonLWWD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Girona 0–2
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Tenerife 1–0
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Burgos 1–0
- Mon 17 Aug · H v Sabadell 0–0
EldenseDLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Mallorca 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Leganes 0–1
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cadiz 2–2
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Almeria 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sporting Gijon have won 2 of their last 4.
- Sporting Gijon have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 0 of Sporting Gijon's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Sporting Gijon's last 4.
- Sporting Gijon kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.
- Eldense have won 0 of their last 4.
- Eldense have scored in 1 of their last 4.
- 2 of Eldense's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Eldense's last 4.
- Eldense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Sporting Gijon
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Eldense
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
El Molinón, Gijon · Referee: O. Rivera Olmedo
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Sporting Gijon vs Eldense?
- Our model makes Sporting Gijon the most likely result at 55%. Most likely is not likely — at 55% it does not happen 45% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 58%.
- How many goals are expected in Sporting Gijon vs Eldense?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
- Will both teams score in Sporting Gijon vs Eldense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sporting Gijon vs Eldense?
- Sporting Gijon line up in a 4-4-2, Eldense in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.