Segunda División · Regular Season - 12
TenerifevFC Andorra
Tenerife
FC Andorra·
2 – 2 (90')
1Headline
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 24% against 22%.
What we think
- Tenerife41% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Tenerife the most likely of the three results, at 41%. Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 31 Oct, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, which is what the market has it at too (43%).
For comparison, the market gives Tenerife a 43% chance. Before kick-off our model made it 41%;with the current score at 90′ it is 0%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 30% draw · 29% away
Now: 43% home · 29% draw · 28% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Tenerife
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Tenerife
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
FC Andorra
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TenerifeDDDLD
- Sun 25 Oct · A v Sabadell 1–1(xG 0.4–1.8)
- Mon 19 Oct · A v Celta de Vigo II 1–1
- Mon 12 Oct · H v Girona 1–1
- Mon 5 Oct · A v Cordoba 2–3
- Sat 26 Sep · H v Cadiz 1–1
FC AndorraLLWDW
- Mon 26 Oct · H v Burgos 2–3(xG 1.8–1.6)
- Sun 18 Oct · A v Girona 0–2
- Sun 11 Oct · H v Castellón 1–0
- Sun 4 Oct · A v Sabadell 0–0
- Sat 26 Sep · A v Granada CF 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Tenerife have won 0 of their last 5.
- Tenerife have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 1 of Tenerife's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Tenerife's last 5.
- Tenerife kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Andorra have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Andorra have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of FC Andorra's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC Andorra's last 5.
- FC Andorra kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Tenerife
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Andorra
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Heliodoro Rodríguez López, Santa Cruz de Tenerife · Referee: Manuel Angel Perez Hernandez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
- Our model makes Tenerife the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance, against 51% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Tenerife vs FC Andorra?
- Tenerife line up in a 4-4-2, FC Andorra in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.