Segunda División · Regular Season - 5
TenerifevLeganes
Tenerife
Leganes·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–00.9–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–0 (17%), then 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Tenerife and Leganes finish on some other score 54% of the time. We show 1–0 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ten / Leg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Tenerife down the side and Leganes across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Tenerife36% · Match result
- Under 2.562% · Goals
- No55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Tenerife the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 38%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Tenerife
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
Leganes
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TenerifeDLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Real Sociedad II 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Sporting Gijon 0–1
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Almeria 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Eibar 3–1
LeganesDWWDW
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Las Palmas 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Eldense 1–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Oviedo 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Girona 1–1
- Sat 24 May · H v Valladolid 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Tenerife have won 2 of their last 4.
- Tenerife have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Tenerife's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Tenerife's last 4.
- Tenerife kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Leganes have won 3 of their last 5.
- Leganes have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Leganes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Leganes's last 5.
- Leganes kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Tenerife
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Leganes
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Heliodoro Rodríguez López, Santa Cruz de Tenerife · Referee: P. Morales
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Tenerife vs Leganes?
- Our model makes Tenerife the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Tenerife vs Leganes?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 38%, and under 2.5 at 62%.
- Will both teams score in Tenerife vs Leganes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 45% chance, against 55% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Tenerife vs Leganes?
- Tenerife line up in a 4-4-2, Leganes in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.