Segunda División · Regular Season - 12
ValladolidvLeganes
Valladolid
Leganes·
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Valladolid and Leganes finish on some other score 60% of the time. We show 0–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Val / Leg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Valladolid down the side and Leganes across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Leganes36% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Leganes the most likely of the three results, at 36% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 44%). Most likely is not likely: at 36% this result does not happen 64% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Valladolid
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Leganes
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ValladolidLLWDW
- Fri 23 Oct · A v Granada CF 1–2
- Sun 18 Oct · H v Eldense 2–3
- Mon 12 Oct · H v Albacete 5–0
- Sun 4 Oct · A v Las Palmas 2–2
- Sun 27 Sep · H v Cordoba 3–1
LeganesDLLLL
- Sat 24 Oct · H v Mallorca 1–1
- Fri 16 Oct · H v Cordoba 0–1
- Sun 11 Oct · A v Almeria 0–3
- Sat 3 Oct · A v Cadiz 0–4
- Mon 28 Sep · H v Castellón 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5.
- Valladolid have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Valladolid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Valladolid's last 5.
- Valladolid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Leganes have won 0 of their last 5.
- Leganes have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of Leganes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Leganes's last 5.
- Leganes kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Valladolid have won 0, Leganes 1, with 1 drawn.
- Valladolid W–D–L
- 0–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 0 of 2
- Leganes 3–0 Valladolid
- Valladolid 0–0 Leganes
7Context
Valladolid
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Leganes
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid
8Red flags
Lineups pending
Lineups not yet confirmed.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Valladolid vs Leganes?
- Our model makes Leganes the most likely result at 36%. Most likely is not likely — at 36% it does not happen 64% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Valladolid vs Leganes?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Leganes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Leganes?
- In their last 2 meetings, Valladolid have won 0, Leganes 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 0.