Segunda División · Regular Season - 5
ValladolidvOviedo
Valladolid
Oviedo·
0 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.1–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Valladolid and Oviedo finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Val / Ovi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Valladolid down the side and Oviedo across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 47% against 38%.
What we think
- Oviedo37% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Oviedo the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Valladolid the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, against the market’s 38% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Valladolid a 37% chance. Our model makes it 34%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 31% draw · 32% away
Now: 37% home · 31% draw · 32% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Valladolid
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Oviedo
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ValladolidWDLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v FC Andorra 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cadiz 1–1
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Eibar 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Mallorca 0–2
- Sat 24 May · A v Leganes 0–3
OviedoDWLDL
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Burgos 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Albacete 1–0
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Leganes 0–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Granada CF 0–0
- Sat 23 May · A v Mallorca 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Valladolid have won 1 of their last 5.
- Valladolid have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Valladolid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Valladolid's last 5.
- Valladolid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Oviedo have won 1 of their last 5.
- Oviedo have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 1 of Oviedo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Oviedo's last 5.
- Oviedo kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Valladolid
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Oviedo
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
José Zorrilla, Valladolid · Referee: I. Galech
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Valladolid vs Oviedo?
- Our model makes Oviedo the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours Valladolid at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Valladolid vs Oviedo?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Oviedo?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Valladolid vs Oviedo?
- Valladolid line up in a 4-2-3-1, Oviedo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.