Super League · Regular Season - 9
BSC Young BoysvServette FC
BSC Young Boys
Servette FC·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (9%), then 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). BSC Young Boys and Servette FC finish on some other score 75% of the time.
| BSC / Ser | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, BSC Young Boys down the side and Servette FC across. These 97.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 42% against 48%.
What we think
- BSC Young Boys57% · Match result
- Over 2.566% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes BSC Young Boys the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 61%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 66%, against the market’s 70% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives BSC Young Boys a 61% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 61% home · 20% draw · 19% away
Now: 61% home · 20% draw · 19% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
BSC Young Boys
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Servette FC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BSC Young BoysDDWDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v FC Lugano 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v FC Luzern 3–3
- Tue 1 Sep · A v FC Zurich 4–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v FC Basel 1893 3–3
- Sun 23 Aug · H v FC Vaduz 4–2
Servette FCWWLLD
- Wed 16 Sep · A v FC Thun 4–2
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Lausanne 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FC ST. Gallen 0–2(xG 0.9–1.4)
- Thu 3 Sep · A v FC Lugano 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v FC Luzern 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- BSC Young Boys have won 2 of their last 5.
- BSC Young Boys have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of BSC Young Boys's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of BSC Young Boys's last 5.
- BSC Young Boys kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Servette FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Servette FC have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Servette FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Servette FC's last 5.
- Servette FC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
BSC Young Boys
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Servette FC
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Stadion Wankdorf, Bern · Referee: Mirel Turkes, Switzerland
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win BSC Young Boys vs Servette FC?
- Our model makes BSC Young Boys the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 61%.
- How many goals are expected in BSC Young Boys vs Servette FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 66%, and under 2.5 at 34%.
- Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs Servette FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for BSC Young Boys vs Servette FC?
- BSC Young Boys line up in a 4-2-3-1, Servette FC in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.