Super League · Regular Season - 9
FC Basel 1893vFC ST. Gallen
FC Basel 1893
FC ST. Gallen·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Basel 1893 down the side and FC ST. Gallen across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- FC Basel 189344% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes FC Basel 1893 the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Basel 1893
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
FC ST. Gallen
Confirmed · 3-5-2
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC Basel 1893WLLDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v FC Luzern 4–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Lugano 1–3
- Thu 3 Sep · H v FC Sion 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v BSC Young Boys 3–3
- Sat 22 Aug · A v FC Zurich 2–1
FC ST. GallenLLWLL
- Wed 16 Sep · A v FC Lugano 1–4
- Sat 12 Sep · H v FC Sion 0–3
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Servette FC 2–0(xG 1.4–0.9)
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Grasshoppers 0–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Thun 3–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Basel 1893 have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Basel 1893 have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Basel 1893's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of FC Basel 1893's last 5.
- FC Basel 1893 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC ST. Gallen have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC ST. Gallen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC ST. Gallen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of FC ST. Gallen's last 5.
- FC ST. Gallen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Basel 1893
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC ST. Gallen
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
St. Jakob-Park, Basel · Referee: Sven Wolfensberger, Switzerland
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
- Our model makes FC Basel 1893 the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
- FC Basel 1893 line up in a 4-3-3, FC ST. Gallen in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.